MarketEdge AM Comments
Jun 30, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. It is Report Day. At 11am, USDA will release the highly anticipated Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Reports. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight ahead of this important report. September corn finished the overnight session up 3 ¾ cents, settling at 5.2725. August soybeans were up 18 ¾ cents, settling at 13.8650. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 193 points, trading at 103.149. August crude oil is up 22 cents, trading at $70.08 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 171 points, trading at 34,524. There is a lot going on here today. Not only is it a key report day, but it is the end of the month, the end of the quarter, First Notice Day for July futures, and will probably be the last high volume trading day until after the July 4th holiday as many folks will likely treat this as a four-day weekend and not show up on Monday. Let’s talk about the report first. The June 30th report often elicits some of the most volatile post-report market reactions of the calendar year. This is a because the June 30th acreage figures are indeed much more accurate than the March estimates that the trade has had to deal with for the last three months. Even seemingly insignificant changes in acreage figures can really alter the balance sheet and bring about quite a reaction. The ranges of trade estimates for the stocks and acreage figures on today’s report are wide, so really it’s anybody’s guess where USDA will end up at 11am. Be advised to buckle up and be ready for anything. Limits for corn and soybeans today are 45 cents and $1.05, respectively. Along with the report, the market will have to deal with typical end of month, end of quarter, and First Notice Day volatility today. Wrap all of this together and add that we are approaching a holiday on Tuesday where there will be no trading right in the middle of what has been and will likely continue to be a very volatile weather market and we really have the recipe for what could be quite an interesting day. Stay tuned. Yesterday, the funds sold 10,000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 34,060 contracts of corn, net long 63,415 contracts of soybeans, and net short 111,440 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at yesterday’s low, 5.21, followed by the psychological 5.00 mark, and then 4.8625, the 21-month low charted on May 18th. Initial resistance is at 5.32, the overnight high, followed by 5.50, and then 5.9650, the high for the week charted on Monday. August soybeans find initial support at 13.6525, the overnight low, followed by Wednesday’s low, 13.5125, and then 13.50. Initial resistance is at 13.9650, the overnight high, followed closely by the psychological 14.00 level, and then 14.47, the three-month high charted last Wednesday. Opening calls are higher. Following are 24-hour rainfall totals reported by River Valley Coop employees for their respective Coop locations and/or homes:
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. It is Report Day. At 11am, USDA will release the highly anticipated Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Reports. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight ahead of this important report. September corn finished the overnight session up 3 ¾ cents, settling at 5.2725. August soybeans were up 18 ¾ cents, settling at 13.8650. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 193 points, trading at 103.149. August crude oil is up 22 cents, trading at $70.08 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 171 points, trading at 34,524. There is a lot going on here today. Not only is it a key report day, but it is the end of the month, the end of the quarter, First Notice Day for July futures, and will probably be the last high volume trading day until after the July 4th holiday as many folks will likely treat this as a four-day weekend and not show up on Monday. Let’s talk about the report first. The June 30th report often elicits some of the most volatile post-report market reactions of the calendar year. This is a because the June 30th acreage figures are indeed much more accurate than the March estimates that the trade has had to deal with for the last three months. Even seemingly insignificant changes in acreage figures can really alter the balance sheet and bring about quite a reaction. The ranges of trade estimates for the stocks and acreage figures on today’s report are wide, so really it’s anybody’s guess where USDA will end up at 11am. Be advised to buckle up and be ready for anything. Limits for corn and soybeans today are 45 cents and $1.05, respectively. Along with the report, the market will have to deal with typical end of month, end of quarter, and First Notice Day volatility today. Wrap all of this together and add that we are approaching a holiday on Tuesday where there will be no trading right in the middle of what has been and will likely continue to be a very volatile weather market and we really have the recipe for what could be quite an interesting day. Stay tuned. Yesterday, the funds sold 10,000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 34,060 contracts of corn, net long 63,415 contracts of soybeans, and net short 111,440 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at yesterday’s low, 5.21, followed by the psychological 5.00 mark, and then 4.8625, the 21-month low charted on May 18th. Initial resistance is at 5.32, the overnight high, followed by 5.50, and then 5.9650, the high for the week charted on Monday. August soybeans find initial support at 13.6525, the overnight low, followed by Wednesday’s low, 13.5125, and then 13.50. Initial resistance is at 13.9650, the overnight high, followed closely by the psychological 14.00 level, and then 14.47, the three-month high charted last Wednesday. Opening calls are higher. Following are 24-hour rainfall totals reported by River Valley Coop employees for their respective Coop locations and/or homes:
| CITY | COUNTY | STATE | RAIN TOTAL |
| STANWOOD | CEDAR | IA | 0.10 |
| SUNBURY | CEDAR | IA | 0.40 |
| DURANT | CEDAR/MUSCATINE | IA | 0.70 |
| WALCOTT | SCOTT | IA | 0.90 |
| BLUE GRASS | SCOTT | IA | 1.20 |
| DEWITT | CLINTON | IA | 0.20 |
| ELDRIDGE | SCOTT | IA | 1.00 |
| DEER GROVE | WHITESIDE | IL | 1.50 |
| WALNUT | BUREAU | IL | 1.00 |
| THOMAS | BUREAU | IL | 0.90 |
| MANLIUS | BUREAU | IL | 2.70 |
| PRINCETON | BUREAU | IL | 0.90 |
| WYANET | BUREAU | IL | 1.38 |
| SHEFFIELD | BUREAU | IL | 0.40 |
| NEPONSET | BUREAU | IL | 0.50 |
| TISKILWA | BUREAU | IL | 0.60 |
| KASBEER | BUREAU | IL | 1.10 |
| OSCEOLA | STARK | IL | 1.50 |
| BRADFORD | STARK | IL | 1.55 |
| CAMBRIDGE | HENRY | IL | 0.50 |
| GENESEO | HENRY | IL | 0.25 |
| ANNAWAN | HENRY | IL | 0.20 |
| HOOPPOLE | HENRY | IL | 0.83 |
| EDELSTEIN | PEORIA | IL | 1.20 |
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.